After double-clicking the shortcut my screen will flash black, flash my desktop, resized, and flash black once more before returning me to the desktop with an error message. I just guessed it was a recent install of an addon that caused this.
Now, I suffer the splash screens without the no splash line added to the shortcut tag.
Addons, like whole families of addons from the same maker, will break the boot process. UCE, RED and ohter weapons makers have had to been without. Also, critical addons like barrackaddon will do the same.